Posted March 11, 2011
hedwards: That's not true, they can't pinpoint in any meaningful way when the earthquake or eruption will happen, they definitely know that pressure is building up. The science in that respect is actually quite accurate, it's just that there's no particular way of knowing at what point the pressure will finally overcome the resistance.
Volcanoes are a bit more complex, but with modern imaging techniques and the historical record, we are due for at least one of about a half dozen different volcanoes blowing its top. Mt. St. Helens is the only one that's actually blown it's top in recent memory, but most of the others are active as well.
Nowhere after "That's not true" did you say it was possible to predict either...(?) And I'm not really sure if you're describing volcanic pressure as well in the first paragraph or strike-slip faulting, which wouldn't affect the pacific northwest. I also don't know what "modern imaging techniques" you're referring to. Monitoring heat levels doesn't go very far and doesn't supply much of a warning until the volcano is getting ready to blow. Volcanoes are a bit more complex, but with modern imaging techniques and the historical record, we are due for at least one of about a half dozen different volcanoes blowing its top. Mt. St. Helens is the only one that's actually blown it's top in recent memory, but most of the others are active as well.
When scientists say volcanoes are due for eruptions, they're talking along the geologic timeline. Meaning it could happen tomorrow like sensationalists would have you believe, or it could happen in 400 years, or it could happen in 2,000 years (or in cases like Yellowstone, any day in the next 90,000 or whatever years). That's not really predicting, and no scientific body (like the USGS) would go by it. You might see Mt. Baker or even Ranier go boom boom in your lifetime; it's impossible to know until it goes into overdrive as much as a week or more beforehand (likely less), at which point you're past the time to make predictions.