Posted November 03, 2011
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lukaszthegreat
Greed is good!
Registered: Sep 2008
From Norfolk Island
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Trilarion
New User
Registered: Jul 2010
From Germany
Posted November 03, 2011
I believe in democracy and that the world would be a better place if people would get asked about their opinions on a more regular basis. So I am sad, that the greek people cannot decide anything there. On the other hand there isn't much to decide, all ways will be bitter in the future. If I would live in greece I would probably move somewhere else soon. But this are just side remarks. I hope that in the long run Europe will grow together and help each other and learns to live without making debt (which allways the next generation has to pay).
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hedwards
buy Evil Genius
Registered: Nov 2008
From United States
Posted November 03, 2011
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We have initiatives and referendums around here for that purpose, the problem is that they're up or down votes by the people and the initiatives in particular are a way of special interests doing an end run around the politicians.
It might not sound bad, but of the 3 initiatives run this time, I think only one of them isn't being funded solely by one group.
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F1ach
Mortes best mate
Registered: May 2011
From Ireland
Posted November 03, 2011
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In practice, it would suck to live in Greece for a while and you are relying on politicians to make the right choices they failed at for years, but they would control their own destiny at least. Not saying its the right path, but it is not some ridiculous idea other posters are implying.
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EDIT:
Aaaaaaaaaand its over. Nothing like rocking the global markets for the sh1t of it...
http://news.yahoo.com/greek-pm-scraps-referendum-greek-debt-plan-144719929.html
Its kinda the opposite of germany. germany needs the euro as a devaluation tool because its original mark currency, was too highly valued.
Greece wants to devalue its currency, but cant due to its euro connection.
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mrmarioanonym
Razupaltuff!
Registered: Apr 2011
From Germany
Posted November 03, 2011
You know what i really hate, I thought my birth country Germany had laid off the rascism, but if you read the newspapers, you'll see hate speeches against Greece galore. I guess it goes to show how some things never change. I hate how politicians f*ck everything up, but that's not the populations fault. And the whole press in Germany blames the population but not the politicians.
Post edited November 03, 2011 by mrmarioanonym
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Siannah
what?
Registered: Sep 2008
From Switzerland
Posted November 03, 2011
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http://nationaldebtclocks.com/greece.htm
Otherwise please explain why Greece is on the verge of bankruptcy with almost € 30k dept per citizen, while Italy with € 31.5K is "in danger but still safe". Even more if you look at the troubled Spain and Portugal (both around € 14k) while Germany (€ 23k) and France (€ 26k) are considered the economic powerhorses of the EU.
If it was otherwise, the US with $ 49k dept per citizen should have been sold to China years ago.
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If Greece falls, so will several banks who are considered as "system-relevant". Neither Merkel nor Sarkozy are in it for the Greeks.
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Irenaeus.
New User
Registered: May 2009
From United Kingdom
Posted November 03, 2011
If Greece leaves the euro, the drachma will lose value almost instantly - one economist on the BBC reckoned about 25% in a few months. Since Greece imports most of its raw materials (oil, petrol, manufactured goods etc), then everything would become about 25% more expensive in a month or so.
So the question the Greeks would have to face in a referendum would be - do they want to stay in the Euro and have pain for the next 10 years, or leave the Euro and have roughly the same amount of pain compressed into 2 years? Other countries that defaulted (Argentina, Iceland etc) took about that amount of time to return to growth due to currency devaluation. Of course, they would not be able to borrow much money at all if they defaulted - if they left the Euro now then they'd have to immediately fire many civil servants since their tax receipts aren't enough to pay the wages, let alone pay anything back...
One thing that wasn't highly reported was that the Greek PM fired most of the military chiefs yesterday, presumably to stop the possibility of a military coup.
Edit - Just to clarify - The banks will not lose much money if Greece defaults. Everything is insured, mainly by UK and US insurance companies. The only problem the banks would have is (much) higher premiums on their future insurance. It's the UK insurance companies who are a bit terrified at the moment! If the insurance companies go bust, or have high "you must bear the first X amounts of dollars of loss", then the French and German banks really will be in trouble.
So the question the Greeks would have to face in a referendum would be - do they want to stay in the Euro and have pain for the next 10 years, or leave the Euro and have roughly the same amount of pain compressed into 2 years? Other countries that defaulted (Argentina, Iceland etc) took about that amount of time to return to growth due to currency devaluation. Of course, they would not be able to borrow much money at all if they defaulted - if they left the Euro now then they'd have to immediately fire many civil servants since their tax receipts aren't enough to pay the wages, let alone pay anything back...
One thing that wasn't highly reported was that the Greek PM fired most of the military chiefs yesterday, presumably to stop the possibility of a military coup.
Edit - Just to clarify - The banks will not lose much money if Greece defaults. Everything is insured, mainly by UK and US insurance companies. The only problem the banks would have is (much) higher premiums on their future insurance. It's the UK insurance companies who are a bit terrified at the moment! If the insurance companies go bust, or have high "you must bear the first X amounts of dollars of loss", then the French and German banks really will be in trouble.
Post edited November 03, 2011 by Irenaeus.
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lukaszthegreat
Greed is good!
Registered: Sep 2008
From Norfolk Island
Posted November 03, 2011
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Otherwise please explain why Greece is on the verge of bankruptcy with almost € 30k dept per citizen, while Italy with € 31.5K is "in danger but still safe". Even more if you look at the troubled Spain and Portugal (both around € 14k) while Germany (€ 23k) and France (€ 26k) are considered the economic powerhorses of the EU.
If it was otherwise, the US with $ 49k dept per citizen should have been sold to China years ago.
The problem is not the fall of greece. The problem is the fall of the (mostly german and french) banks who have put way too much money into greek papers.
If Greece falls, so will several banks who are considered as "system-relevant". Neither Merkel nor Sarkozy are in it for the Greeks.
Greece doesn't matter. The problem is domino effect. While fall of Greece will hurt banks the biggest problem are Ireland, Spain, Portugal and Italy. If Greece falls, so will several banks who are considered as "system-relevant". Neither Merkel nor Sarkozy are in it for the Greeks.
If they didn't have problems and rest of the situation was exactly the same (aka banks had the same amount of Greek papers) it would not be a big deal at all as those banks would either survive or some other banks would help them out.
But with so many countries having so many problems we are running into risk Greece defaulting and harming those other countries causing chain reaction.
Greece bankruptcy is by itself irrelevant for the world, it can start tough a chain reaction bringing down more important players which fall will actually hurt everyone.
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JudasIscariot
Thievin' Bastard
Registered: Oct 2008
From Poland
Posted November 03, 2011
The possible fall of Greece has been circulating around here for quite a while now. I have read that if they do go back to the drachma they will have a harder time paying back the debt which will be in Euros. Imagine making money in a very weak currency and you have some debt collector coming over your house and breaking your knees over a debt in a currency that is much stronger than yours. I don't think they will be able to default indefinitely. They will be forced to pay the debt back one way or another, whether it's in drachmas or Euros.
One thing I read about Greece is how they had a taxation system that had loopholes that would allow you to not pay property tax as long as you could prove that your house was under construction. This means that you could have a nice house on some land and just keep one are of it looking as if something is being built on there and you could avoid property taxes. Again, this is information I got 3rd hand so I am not sure as to how accurate it might be.
One thing I read about Greece is how they had a taxation system that had loopholes that would allow you to not pay property tax as long as you could prove that your house was under construction. This means that you could have a nice house on some land and just keep one are of it looking as if something is being built on there and you could avoid property taxes. Again, this is information I got 3rd hand so I am not sure as to how accurate it might be.
Post edited November 03, 2011 by JudasIscariot
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Navagon
Easily Persuaded
Registered: Dec 2008
From United Kingdom
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muttly13
I must break you
Registered: Aug 2011
From United States
Posted November 03, 2011
Saying Greece going bankrupt is irrelevant in a vacuum is a tad overstated dont you think? If nothing else you dont think funds will dry up for the immediate future making all cash costs skyrocket? If Greece goes in some form of vacuum (which it cant obviously) it would hammer the EU and the globe for months.
The bigger issue is the domino effect for sure, but Greece itself isnt a non-issue.
The bigger issue is the domino effect for sure, but Greece itself isnt a non-issue.
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lukaszthegreat
Greed is good!
Registered: Sep 2008
From Norfolk Island
Posted November 03, 2011
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The bigger issue is the domino effect for sure, but Greece itself isnt a non-issue.
of course on individual level it is important. if you are greek, if you export to greece, or if you live in albania or Macedonia. Or cyprus. or you are a bank and invested lots of monies there.
Don't get your point about cash costs skyrocketing. In greece? yeah. In EU, rest of the world? Not really.
The danger of Greece fall is what it will cause to the bigger players which are also having problem. By itself. not that big of a deal.
Post edited November 03, 2011 by lukaszthegreat
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JudasIscariot
Thievin' Bastard
Registered: Oct 2008
From Poland
Posted November 03, 2011
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The bigger issue is the domino effect for sure, but Greece itself isnt a non-issue.
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of course on individual level it is important. if you are greek, if you export to greece, or if you live in albania or Macedonia. Or cyprus. or you are a bank and invested lots of monies there.
Don't get your point about cash costs skyrocketing. In greece? yeah. In EU, rest of the world? Not really.
The danger of Greece fall is what it will cause to the bigger players which are also having problem. By itself. not that big of a deal.
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orcishgamer
Mad and Green
Registered: Jun 2010
From United States
Posted November 03, 2011
The referendum has been called off.
And frankly, I don't know what his reasons were but the EU was asking the Greek people to do shit that was probably bad for them and good for the EU (so they got marginal good but mostly bad, while the entire EU got the same marginal good). You can argue one way or the other whether they deserve it or not but it doesn't seem all that insane to put it to a popular vote, especially in the "birthplace of democracy".
The PM claims now that he has his opposition's support he can pass this without a referendum, whether that's the true reason or not.
And frankly, I don't know what his reasons were but the EU was asking the Greek people to do shit that was probably bad for them and good for the EU (so they got marginal good but mostly bad, while the entire EU got the same marginal good). You can argue one way or the other whether they deserve it or not but it doesn't seem all that insane to put it to a popular vote, especially in the "birthplace of democracy".
The PM claims now that he has his opposition's support he can pass this without a referendum, whether that's the true reason or not.
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lukaszthegreat
Greed is good!
Registered: Sep 2008
From Norfolk Island
Posted November 03, 2011
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And frankly, I don't know what his reasons were but the EU was asking the Greek people to do shit that was probably bad for them and good for the EU (so they got marginal good but mostly bad, while the entire EU got the same marginal good). You can argue one way or the other whether they deserve it or not but it doesn't seem all that insane to put it to a popular vote, especially in the "birthplace of democracy".
The PM claims now that he has his opposition's support he can pass this without a referendum, whether that's the true reason or not.
They want them to get their shit together, cut costs to wisely spend money EU is offering.
That involves some trouble times but there is no escape from trouble times now. And if they don't listen to EU they cannot be part of Euro.
and if they are not part of euro they are most likely screwed much much worse as who will trust Greek Drachma? After some years sure. Right now it will mean total collapse of their economy with tourism (which for everyone else becomes dirt cheap) being the only saving industry of the country.
Much worse than firing thousands of people, cutting retirements, cutting tax breaks, ensuring taxes are paid... from that nobody will really starve and from that country can recover.
but people don't understand that. they see that they will lose jobs now but don't see that they will lose those jobs later anyway. that suffering a bit right now is better than postponing the suffering as it will just build up more.
that's why putting it for referendum was a stupid idea, that's why everyone panicked when it was announced.
because it would never pass and the referendum would cost everyone including greece simply too much for everyone to handle.
there a ways when people decide what to do next. and there are times when people in charge have to make hard decision instead of putting them for a vote.