Chimpy: If the only sign ups Onlive can attract are at ridiculously below cost prices, they will go belly up before 2013. Good luck in getting your "guaranteed access" from a bankrupt company.
This is my thinking also. Their upkeep costs must be massive. They are certainly higher than those of Steam or GOG (per customer, not total). Steam and GOG only store data and need to keep their servers running for data transfer. They can even outsource this to companies around the world. The occasional drop in connection is no biggy for them.
Onlive however must maintain high quality, high volume connections at all times, or their liable for refunds. Additionally, they must keep massive "gaming rigs" working to do all the processing of the games. All this takes up a lot of maintanace manpower. Which can't be outsorced to India or China, because their servers have to be local.
So, they need high revenue to stay aflot. But they can only stay competetive with low prices.
I can't see how it should work.